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Against a backdrop of a national campaign season in which Republicans hope to shake up Washington, D.C., Greene County may be forging its own path.
In the first general election since the redrawing of state legislative districts by a Republican-held legislature in Jefferson City, Springfield Democrats hope to capitalize within new district lines that could potentially work in their favor.
“Greene County is the epicenter for turning Missouri back to a balanced state,” said Rep. Crystal Quade, who is the House minority leader.
Before the 2020 election, Quade was the only Democratic representative in Greene County, a blue dot in the red sea that is southern Missouri. Then came along Rep. Betsy Fogle, who narrowly beat an incumbent Republican in the 135th District.
In an interview with the Hauxeda, Quade stopped short of making any predictions about what the Nov. 8 election may have in store for her party, but was certainly more optimistic about their chances compared to what they were in the past.
“We went from having one strong Democratic district and one competitive district in the 135th with Representative Betsy Fogle and the rest very solid Republican districts, to now, almost all of them are fifty-fifty,” Quade said.
While Republicans have other plans, local Democrats have hopes to continue flipping seats, relying on five women — four of whom are competing against men. The five races are:
- District 132: incumbent Democrat Quade vs. Republican Stephanos Freeman
- District 133: (open seat) Democrat Amy Blansit vs. Republican Melanie Stinnett
- District 134: incumbent Republican Alex Riley vs. Democrat Samanta Deaton
- District 135: incumbent Democrat Fogle vs. Republic AJ Exner
- District 136: incumbent Republican Craig Fishel vs. Democrat Stephanie Hein
This story kicks off the Daily Citizen's coverage of local races for the Missouri General Assembly. Stories about each competitive race will be published by Nov. 2. Follow all of our election coverage here.
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In three Springfield House Districts, and one area Senate District, Republican candidates are unopposed on the Nov. 8 ballot.
GOP confident in holding seats, eager to oust Fogle and Quade
Dannette Proctor, the chair of the Greene County Republican Central Committee, predicts the upcoming election in the local districts will be “very red,” despite the direction that Springfield is headed.
“The tempo out there right now is that people are upset with what’s going on and the leadership in the Democratic Party,” Proctor said. “They do not like it and I’d say they’re more favorable to our Republican candidates.”
Ted Cruz, the U.S. Senator from Texas came to Springfield for a campaign event in July to endorse Eric Burlison (for the U.S. House) and Eric Schmitt (for the U.S. Senate), in their respective primary races, and he expressed similar predictions for what November has in store for the Republican party.
“We’re not just going to see a red wave, we’re going to see a tsunami,” Cruz said at the event.
Proctor acknowledged challenges though, attributing some of potential woes to redistricting and the confusion it has caused among voters. But she believes their “grassroots, door to door, people to people” approach to the campaign will pay off come November.
“Redistricting has really thrown a kink and confused a lot of people,” Proctor said. “They don’t realize who their state representative is right now. … People are confused with that, and that’s why it’s very important that candidates do get out and knock on doors, to introduce themselves to the people so when they pull that ballot, they recognize the name.”
No easy path in increasingly competitive districts
Door knocking has been the name of the game for candidates of both parties in the Springfield area, as the districts become more competitive.
Lincoln Hough, who himself is seeking reelection as Springfield’s state senator from District 30, praised Fogle’s willingness to knock every door in his former House District 135, which she won by a mere 76 votes in 2020.
“I don’t know that there’s anyone that campaigns harder or knocks more doors and pounds more pavement and sidewalks through the neighborhoods than she does,” Hough said. “It’s a close district, it’s a tight seat. So I’m sure that the race is going to be decided on a handful of votes and I think it’s probably a toss up. But I know she's working hard, and I know AJ (Exner, the Republican candidate) is working hard.”
Lanae Gillespie, Proctor’s counterpart with the Greene County Democrats, shares similar optimism, but in regards to her own party.
“I think it's going to be a little more difficult for Crystal than it's been before, but then I feel confident she will and I think that Betsy will definitely hold on to her seat,” Gillespie said. “And I think our chances (in District 136) are very good, probably the best they've been in years.”
Despite her enthusiasm for some of the local races, Gillespie conceded that unseating Republican incumbent Rep. Alex Riley in House District 134 will be the most challenging of all the races come November.
“It's going to be a tough fight for Samantha [Deaton],” Gillespie said. “But I think with the issues that have come up, I think she stands a much better chance today than she did two months ago even. … She does have the most difficult fight, against Alex Riley. We know that she is working, she's canvassing, she's calling. I think she will fare well, but I don't know that she will get elected. I'm hopeful.”
Riley attributed his first election to the state House and feels confident about his reelection due to his “robust” campaign, spearheaded by door-to-door canvassing.
“If you’re not knocking doors in Springfield as a state representative candidate, you’re not going to win,” Riley said. “Nor should you, to be honest.”
Dobbs, the Supreme Court and voter turnout
Deaton attributed some of her optimism to the recent vote that took place in Kansas on a state constitutional amendment, where the majority of Kansans resoundingly voted no, and affirmed the right to an abortion in the state constitution. Kansas, a reliably Republican state, didn’t necessarily vote along traditional party lines when it comes to the issue of abortion. The overturning of Roe v. Wade has led some national polls to swing, cautiously, in favor of Democrats.
Daniel Ponder, a political science professor at Drury University in Springfield, concurred that while the Dobbs decision will certainly influence the results of the general election, the Kansas referendum isn’t necessarily reflective of how voters will cast their ballot for political candidates.
“There are some things that are going to motivate voters that are probably going to be very similar to what motivates voters at the national level,” Ponder said. “We saw what happened in Kansas with the abortion question, and that was fairly overwhelming, but that was specifically about abortion. … How deeply is that going to affect someone? I think we don’t necessarily know that just yet.”
Generally speaking, however, Ponder thinks issues such as problems with the economy and inflation will work against Democrats, but if abortion and other issues that might work in their favor impact how Missourians vote in statehouse races, then their optimism isn’t misplaced.
Ponder also noted how the spike in voter registration nationwide, particularly among women, could work in Democrats’ favor.
Whether those registrations turn into votes for Democrats remains to be seen, but it could partially indicate what issues people are voting on for this election.
“Whether we’ll be a microcosm for the rest of the country, I don’t know,” Ponder said. “I think a lot of what we’re going to learn from this election with the redrawn districts, not just at the state legislative or the Congressional level, but around the country is going to tell us a lot about what the future looks like for Democrats and Republicans, particularly with the Supreme Court being an increasing factor.”
Local veterans confident in own campaigns
Hough, who beat back a primary challenge, and Quade both have opposition on Nov. 8. However, after six years in the Missouri General Assembly for Quade, and 12 for Hough, they both expressed confidence in their own reelections, and how their respective parties could fare.
Hough said that he thinks Democrats’ chances are hurt due to them holding the White House, and the rising cost of utility bills and groceries, among other things.
“All the free money that you can give to people doesn’t make up for those ongoing expenses that everybody sees,” Hough said.
Coupled with the tax cut legislation the Missouri General Assembly passed during the recent special session in Jefferson City, and signed by Republican Gov. Mike Parson on Oct. 5, Hough believes Republicans have a clear path to victory in the upcoming election.
“My take would be that I think we’re looking at a pretty good Republican year,” Hough said. “The reception’s pretty good for the message that Republicans bring to the table. … Springfield’s a competitive seat, but I think for a candidate who goes out there, does a good job and just tries to think about their community first and maybe politics a little bit later in the discussion, I think we do okay. I think people in Springfield just want results.”
Many national polls indicate Republicans are in a strong position to retake at least one chamber of Congress, but when looking at local state house races in Greene County, Quade thinks redistricting and increasing competitiveness in the Springfield area has the potential to work in the Democrats’ favor.
“While we’re looking at national politics, there are a lot of trends we could talk about,” Quade said. “When it comes to the local elections in Greene County, we are definitely in a position now where both sides need to work equally hard to try to win their elections.”
Can female candidates crack the supermajority status of Republicans?
Currently, in Missouri, a bill can be filed in the House and passed in the Senate without needing a single woman’s or Democrat’s signature, Rep. Fogle pointed out at a candidate panel held by the Junior League of Springfield.
“I think right now, here in Missouri, what you see, on either side of the aisle, when one political party gets so big , they don’t have to be held accountable by members of the minority party,” Fogle said.
The Missouri House is comprised of 163 members, with 48 Democrats, 107 Republicans and eight vacancies. According to Quade, if Democrats are able to gain six additional seats, they can break the Republicans’ supermajority status. “We can bring Missouri back to the purple place it’s supposed to be,” she said, referring to the state's historical role as a swing state in national elections.
The supermajority means the party in power can override vetoes and take most other action without any help from the minority. Winning more than one-third of the seats has been a top Democratic goal for several election cycles.
“Incremental change is wildly important, regardless of the numbers,” Quade said.
The female vote could make a significant impact on the election across the country, and could potentially lift some of the women in the area to victory.
Quade is proud of the women she gets to run alongside, but said lining up women to run was not intentional, despite having access to the Supreme Court document that leaked the eventual fate of Roe v. Wade prior to the filing deadlines.
“There wasn’t an orchestrated effort to recruit women,” Quade said. “But we are very excited about it for a multitude of reasons, but the biggest one being that I think right now, in our state, it’s very timely to have the candidates be all women.”
Where and when to vote, and what you need to bring (click to expand story)
When and where: The general election will take place on Nov. 8. Polls open at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. You can identify your polling location here. Information on absentee voting in Greene County can be found here.
Finding your district: Information about what state House and Senate district you might live in can be found here.
What you need: This is the first election that Missouri’s new photo ID law will be in effect. The Secretary of State’s website provides information about what forms of ID will be acceptable.
