OPINION |
Grab your popcorn because it’s going to get interesting between now and the Aug. 1 Major League Baseball trade deadline. What in the world are the St. Louis Cardinals going to do to remedy their potentially worst season in 45 years?
This is absolutely unfamiliar territory for team management and its spoiled fan base. Considered by many a model franchise for its unwavering consistency, the Cardinals have not had a losing record since 2007 and have only finished below .500 three times since 1997.
Since Bill DeWitt Jr. purchased the team in 1995, the Cardinals have been to the playoffs 17 times and won four National League pennants. World Series championships came in 2006 and 2011. As nearly every other MLB franchise has taken a turn with miserable seasons, St. Louis has been able to maintain a high level — until now.
Cardinals' struggles start, and finish, with pitching
There are a lot of reasons the Cardinals have struggled in 2023, but it all starts with poor starting pitching and finishes with awful relief pitching. Little was done in the offseason to bolster the pitching staff and that issue came to the forefront early when the starters struggled and the bullpen was overworked.
Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas were part of Team USA at the World Baseball Classic. Wainwright, 41, hurt himself in the weight room, landed on the injured list and has endured a terrible season. Cardinals fans should love the guy for all he’s done, but Father Time is undefeated. Wainwright has 198 career victories and hopefully he gets two more.
Mikolas barely pitched in the WBC, setting him back and turning the first month of the season into a spring training redo for him. Steven Matz wasn’t up to the challenge. Jack Flaherty has been inconsistent. Matthew Liberatore, a long-time prospect, has fumbled his opportunity. Jordan Montgomery has been the only consistent starter and he left his last start with a hamstring injury.
Three guys have tried the closer’s role as the Cardinals have blown a National League-leading 28 leads and 21 saves. Without an air-tight bullpen in today’s game, when complete games by starters have gone the way of the dinosaur, you have no chance of success.
Defense and baserunning haven't been good, either
Offensively, the outfield has been a revolving door. There was the drama involving expensive free agent-signee Willson Contrearas, who was banished to designated hitter before he suddenly wasn’t. Manager Oliver Marmol took flack for criticizing Tyler O’Neill for a lack of hustle. Jordan Walker got off to a good start and was inexplicably sent to the minor leagues for a month. For an organization known for being buttoned-down and drama-free, it’s been more turbulent than an episode of the television show “Succession.”
The lineup has been streaky. Defense and baserunning, long St. Louis strengths, have been poor. Marmol has received his share of criticism, some of it deserved and some not with a flawed roster to work with.
Add it all up and the Cardinals’ chances to make a playoff run are slim and none, and slim already has a foot out the door. If it takes 88 victories to win the National League Central, that would mean St. Louis needing a 50-22 record (.694 winning percentage) the rest of the way. The popular baseball metric Fangraphs gives the Cardinals a 5.8 chance of winning the NL Central.
Time to turn attention to 2024 and become sellers
So what happens next? The Cardinals should turn their attention to 2024 and become sellers at the trade deadline. Anyone with an expiring contract should be made available to deal. Flaherty and Montgomery are the most likely candidates who would fetch the most in return. Tyler O’Neill would be another attractive candidate, but his injury history diminishes his value. Dylan Carlson, still only 23, could be a valuable trade piece.
Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak, in an interview with St. Louis television station Fox2now KTVI, said earlier this week that “we’re going to trade people.” Whether that means significant moves or not, we’ll find out over the next couple of weeks.
Winn, McGreevy and Graceffo could arrive at Busch Stadium sooner rather than later
Any potential moves would have an impact on current or past Springfield Cardinals. Masyn Winn, who joined Walker as Texas League stars at Springfield in 2022, is projected by many as St. Louis’ starting shortstop in 2024. After a slow start at Triple-A Memphis, Winn is hitting .266 with 10 home runs and is playing outstanding defense.
There’s a chance that Winn gets his feet wet in the big leagues later this season if the Cardinals move away from Paul DeJong and opt to keep Tommy Edman in center field. Michael McGreevy, Springfield’s opening-day starting pitcher this season before a quick promotion to Memphis, also could receive some starts in St. Louis sooner than later. Pitcher Gordon Graceffo, Springfield Class of 2022, is back pitching for Memphis after injury issues earlier this season. Graceffo remains the No. 3-ranked prospect in the organization according to MLB.com, behind Winn and Hence.
Will Springfield see a ripple effect?
Should the Cardinals trade veterans for young talent, we could also see a ripple effect with the Springfield roster. That would be the opposite of what we’re used to when Springfield Cardinals were sometimes included in deals to help the big-league team make a late-season push. Just a year ago, infielder Malcom Nunez went to the Pirates in exchange for pitcher Jose Quintana, who helped the Cardinals win the NL Central.
It was fitting that the 2024 MLB schedule was unveiled on Thursday because it’s time for the Cardinals to focus on the future after this hot mess of a 2023 season. Like most other big-league teams who have been sellers at the trade deadline over the years, the Cardinals are facing the harsh reality of hitting the reset button.
