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ANALYSIS |

We have reached the eve of Tuesday’s primary election in which voters will choose candidates to face off Nov. 8 in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt.

Oddsmakers will say the winner of the Republican primary has the best chance of winning in November, but a lot can happen in three months — and a lot will depend on which candidates emerge from the bloody primary battles in both parties.

The polls open statewide Tuesday at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m., but if you are standing in line when the polls close, you will still be able to vote.

To find out where to vote in Greene County, you can check the county clerk’s website. Every polling location has curbside voting available for those voters that are unable to go inside the location. Clearly marked signage with contact information to the polling location is posted at each location.

To follow results, you can track county-level and statewide numbers on the Secretary of State’s website. The Daily Citizen will be publishing stories on election night and will post a story on the U.S. Senate race when there are sufficient results to report.

Now that you have seen the barrage of campaign TV ads — many of them funded by outside groups — it is a good time to step back, look at the essential things we know about the leading candidates, and review closing arguments by the campaigns.

Republicans court pro-Trump voters

On the Republican side, most of the focus is on three candidates: Eric Schmitt, Vicky Hartzler and Eric Greitens.

U.S. Rep. Billy Long, R-Springfield, does not have the money to compete in the TV ad wars, but he is making the most of his effusive personality and his experience as a radio host to appear on talk radio shows across the state. He also has continued to use his Twitter feed to pound the three leading candidates.

Meanwhile, Schmitt has claimed momentum and is spending the final days in a “Save America” tour. The state’s current attorney general is hoping to follow his predecessor Josh Hawley into the Senate. Schmitt was appointed attorney general by Gov. Mike Parson, and then won his own term in 2020. Previously, he served two years as state treasurer, and eight years as a state senator from St. Louis County.

Eric Schmitt, Missouri's attorney general, issued subpoenas to school districts, including Springfield, to learn about surveys sent to students collecting personal information. (Photo by Madeline Carter for the Missouri Independent).

Schmitt has courted conservative voters through his actions as attorney general, primarily in opposition to policies of the Biden Administration, and also local COVID-19 health rules. As the Missouri Independent noted in its profile on Schmitt: “On 68 occasions since Biden became president, often working jointly with other Republican attorneys general, Schmitt has announced legal actions, official comments on proposed regulations and strongly worded letters on education, immigration, pandemic, environmental and energy policies.”

Both Schmitt and Hartzler took further steps last week to shore up support among pro-Trump voters, as both made statements saying they would not support current Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell to become Majority Leader if the Republicans gain control of the Senate. (Former Gov. Eric Greitens long ago made that pledge.)

Hartzler is running on her record over the past 12 years representing Missouri’s 4th District, which covers most of the west-central part of Missouri, from just south of Kansas City, as far south as Barton, Dade and portions of Webster counties, and east to Columbia.

She has openly shared her faith, and used that as reasoning to oppose transgender athletes and expanded acceptance for LGBTQ individuals. It’s consistent with her history: In 2004, she was the state spokeswoman for the Coalition to Protect Marriage, which led a successful campaign for a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in Missouri. (A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2015 overturned the ban.)

YouTube video

Hartzler, a former home economics teacher and state legislator, has spent a significant amount of time in recent weeks touring the heart of her home territory, and also reached into Long’s district, including a low-profile visit to Missouri State University. Her campaign has produced a final video running 2:37 called “From the Heart” in which she touts her record as a congresswoman. She was just the second woman from Missouri to be elected to Congress: “Others talk tough about what they will do when they get to Washington. That’s not the same as actually doing it. I have the battle scars to show for it.”

Former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens used stark imagery to attack Republicans he says are not conservative enough. He defended the violent imagery and dismissed fears it could lead to real-world violence. (Screenshot from video)

While Schmitt and Hartzler have been on the trail and on the air, Greitens did not make public appearances for a few days before returning to campaigning on Thursday. He also was forced to take a day off July 20 for seven hours in a courtroom, responding under oath to child and spousal abuse charges made by his ex-wife.

Greitens has embraced the outsider role, just as he did in winning election as governor in 2016. The former Navy Seal resigned in June 2018 to avoid impeachment among several scandals and potential felony charges. He describes it now as a “corrupt political takedown,” and uses it as ammunition for his Senate campaign.

He describes Republicans In Name Only (referred to by the acronym RINOs) as the root of the country’s problems. “(It) is the RINOs who keep stabbing real patriots in the back and keep stabbing President Trump.”

Leading Democrats hammer each other on social issues

On the Democrat side of the primary campaign, newcomers Lucas Kunce and Trudy Busch Valentine have descended into name-calling and attack ads. Kunce says Busch Valentine is using her personal wealth in an attempt to buy the election. Busch Valentine says voters can’t be bought. Both campaigns are investing heavily in TV advertising, expanding beyond the Kansas City and St. Louis markets to include Springfield and Columbia.

Kunce has a populist message, but — in a sign that polling shows the race is close — he has increasingly focused on his opponent, sharing videos of her TV interviews and statements that he thinks shows she is out of touch with Democratic voters on issues, such as rights for transgender and gay individuals.

Lucas Kunce, a Democrat running for U.S. Senate, speaks to a crowd in Perryville on a campaign swing through southeast Missouri. (Photo by Allison Kite/Missouri Independent)

Kunce grew up in a working-class neighborhoods of Jefferson City. He attended Yale University on grants, came back to Missouri for law school and served 13 years as an officer in the U.S. Marine Corps, including in Iraq and Afghanistan. He previously ran, unsuccessfully, for the Missouri House in 2006.

Busch Valentine has never previously sought public office. She is a nurse and mother of six children. She is the daughter of Gertrude Buholzer Busch and August (Gussie) Anheuser Busch Jr., who grew the Anheuser-Busch companies into the largest brewery in the world.

She has presented herself as more of a moderate Democrat on issues, but has stumbled in interviews when it comes to social issues, particularly as it relates to LGBTQ rights. Her hometown paper, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, endorsed Kunce and said Busch Valentine came across as “unprepared and unconvincing.”

U.S. Senate candidate Trudy Busch Valentine joined hundreds of demonstrators at the Planned Parenthood clinic in St. Louis on June 24, 2022, in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. (Photo by Rebecca Rivas/The Missouri Independent)

In person and at the holiday marches and rallies she has attended, Busch Valentine comes across as sincere and open to learning about issues.

Her TV ads have focused largely on introducing herself to voters, but recently she shifted to attacking Kunce as a Johnny-come-lately progressive, saying that he previously had opposed gay marriage and favored stiffer penalties for marijuana use. Kunce has called for Busch Valentine to “cease and desist,” and called the ad false and defamatory.

On the ballot: 21 Republicans, 11 Democrats

As a reminder, here are all of the candidates on the Aug. 2 ballot, listed in ballot order, as compiled by the Missouri Independent

Republicans

Democrats

Libertarian Party – Jonathan Dine of Kansas City

Constitution Party – Paul Venable of Lincoln

Tweet of the Week (non-candidate edition)

The Daily Citizen Senate Campaign Digest is compiled by David Stoeffler, CEO of the Daily Citizen. Stoeffler has more than 30 years of experience in covering politics in Wisconsin, Nebraska and Missouri. If you have tips or suggestions for the Senate campaign coverage, you may email him at dstoeffler@hauxeda.com.