An initiative petition legalizing abortion in Missouri will advance, following the Missouri Supreme Court's unanimous ruling that rejected Attorney General Andrew Bailey’s attempt to inflate the cost of a potential amendment and refusal to sign off on State Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick’s fiscal note and summary.
The summary, which is meant to illustrate the fiscal impact of a proposed petition, only made note of “at least $51,000” in financial loss as a potential result of the amendment, a far cry from what the attorney general’s office estimated — anything from $12 billion to $51 billion.
While not directly noted in the fiscal summary, the $51,000 estimate Fitzpatrick included comes solely from Greene County, the only government entity to report an anticipated fiscal impact of legalized abortions. Specifically, the Greene County Clerk’s Office provided the county’s estimated “cost or savings” to the state auditor’s office.
“When you have less residents, you have less taxpayer dollars that go into your budget from the property taxes, both real and personal property taxes, that are paid annually each year by citizens of Greene County,” Greene County Clerk Shane Schoeller told the Hauxeda.
Making of the fiscal note
In March 2023, Dr. Anna Fitz-James of St. Louis submitted 11 different initiative petitions that would add an amendment to the Missouri Constitution rolling back the state’s near-total abortion ban.
After soliciting input from 60 state and local government entities, the state auditor's office created a fiscal note and summary for each petition. The summaries were sent to the attorney general for approval of its “legal content and form.”
The summary, in full, reads:
“State government entities estimate no costs or savings, but unknown impact. Local government entities estimate costs of at least $51,000 annually in reduced tax revenues. Opponents estimate a potentially significant loss to state revenue.”
Submissions were made by opponents that aren’t government entities, estimating the petition could result in $12.5 million in lost Medicaid funding. The Missouri Department of Social Services, which administers Medicaid in the state, anticipates no fiscal impact.
Bailey refused to approve the fiscal note, delaying the petition's certification by the Secretary of State’s office. Bailey argued it was “legally deficient” and contained “inadequate submissions concerning the impact to state governmental operations,” despite responses from state agencies and other government entities — including other counties — that indicated they anticipate no fiscal impact as a result of the initiative.
Bailey tried to inflate the cost of the petitions due to reduced tax revenues that could come as a result of increased abortions. Bailey and Fitzpatrick are both Republicans.
The ACLU of Missouri filed suit over the delays, which eventually made its way to the Missouri Supreme Court. The court’s ruling on July 20 reaffirmed the ruling of Cole County Circuit Court Judge Jon Beetem, saying that “the Attorney General has a clear, ministerial duty to approve the summaries and notify the Auditor of that approval.”
Once certified by the secretary of state, petitioners are cleared to begin collecting the 100,000-plus signatures required to put the measure on the 2024 ballot. Had the attorney general “complied with his duty,” the petitions may have been certified nearly 100 days ago.
How Greene County calculated loss in revenue
Schoeller said the clerk’s office worked with Greene County Auditor Cindy Stein to calculate the fiscal impact the petition — and ultimately, abortion access — would have on the county.
The figure for Greene County was determined by first adding 2022 sales tax and personal property tax subtotals, dividing that total ($112,673,249.02) by Greene County’s 2020 population (298,915) to come up with $376.94 per capita. That dollar amount was then multiplied by the number of “resident abortions” that took place among Greene County residents in 2020 (135), equating to a $50,886.90 annual “cost” to the county.
Schoeller said that they used the most recent data available to come up with that figure.
The reason the fiscal note summary uses “at least” before approximating Greene County’s estimate was because Schoeller said “an increase in abortion statistics could reasonably be extrapolated to illustrate less tax collections and revenues over the years of potential working lifetimes,” in his email to the state auditor’s office.
Schoeller’s email also includes a link to a research article from the Pew Charitable Trusts titled “The Long-Term Decline in Fertility — and What It Means for State Budgets.” The writer found that fertility trends, in addition to impacting state budgets, would “influence” property taxes, and in turn impact local governments.
“We just looked at that in terms of what it would cost, in terms of the taxpayer dollars people paid directly to Greene County, and that was the number that we came up with, which I think is very reasonable in terms of the overall budget for Greene County,” Schoeller said.
Schoeller, a Republican former state representative, is running for Secretary of State in 2024. While abortion has not been a focus of his campaign, Schoeller considers himself pro-life. He said his office’s estimate for the petitions was simply a direct answer to a question of the potential amendment’s impact on tax revenues of the county.
Greene County’s reasoning for potential financial loss as a result of the amendment reflects the views of the attorney general, who suggested its methodology be used for other entities.
Greene County’s estimate supported AG’s reasoning
In Bailey’s initial response to the state auditor’s fiscal note, he made reference to Greene County’s estimate multiple times, saying Greene County “understood that the measure would have the obvious effect of reducing the population of their citizens.”
In the response letter, Bailey said Greene County’s assumption wasn’t used to assess the fiscal impact of other government entities.
“As Greene County recognized, aborting unborn Missourians will have a deleterious impact on the future tax base,” the letter reads.
Bailey said Greene County’s estimated cost submission was the only reasonable one of all the government entities that responded to Fitzpatrick’s request for estimates, and its methodology should be applied across all Missouri counties.
He added that the Greene County Clerk’s calculation of cost to the county was supported by U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee study examining the economic cost of unborn children, suggesting the total economic cost to Missouri could be as high as $51 billion based on 2019 abortion numbers in the state.
“As Greene County appropriately presents, the substantial economic fiscal reality of abortion relating to unborn lives cannot be denied or omitted from a fiscal note to inform voters of the consequences,” the letter reads.
